Sorry my posts have been a little more erratic this week, or at least strangely timed. As usual in times of great need, I was called upon by the powers that be to offer them sage advice, and so found myself shooting hoops with President Obama, helping sketch out the outline of his Speech from the Throne…. er, State of the Union Address.
Oh well, not exactly. But I did advise someone how to spell Tim Geithner's name. So thats pretty close, then.
Notwithstanding the unpardonable snub of not being enlisted to help polish the President's message, I dutifully watched the speech (on the web of course - no TV). In the main, I thought it a reasonably good piece of political theatre - reacting to the threat of ebbing public support with an ambitious, job centered program, a few reminders that he inherited these crises, and some cordial jabs and soaring visionary words interspersed to tackle "business as usual", partisan rhetoric.
Its an interesting gamble.
I don't mean the various elements of the platform, though some or more might be part of future missives. I mean rather the effort to turn the knife away the jugular on obstructionist politics. This is, particularly I think in the congressional system, a very difficult task. Its a difficult task for the simple fact that reason plays little part in voters' judgement of whom to vote for, and rhetoric plays the dominant role.
In other words, a politician runs for office promising something (lets pretend…). For example, he or she promises to cut taxes. He then looks at who else got elected when he shows up in Congress, and finds himself in the minority. Maybe in the minority in a big way.
So what does he do?
If he compromises on some of his principles and speeches that he gave on the stump, he'll get killed by the other party showing him as a hypocrite in the next election. Alternately, he'll lose in the primaries to the hard line in his own party holding up photos of him embracing the other party's leaders, painting him as a traitor to the cause. In both cases, he'll get nailed with being ineffective at delivering tax cuts.
If, on the other hand, he stands on his chair and screams, opposing everything in the name of wanting nothing but tax cuts (which, if proposed by the other guy, are too small and/or badly targeted), he'll go back to his constituents a noble warlord. He can't get outflanked by his own party, and can run clips of himself sticking to his guns, "battling Washington" just like he promised his base, and so showing himself a man of principle vs the weakling, opportunist craven figure the other party dares to propose.
Who is going to take the gamble? Go negative, baby, and laugh all the way to the polls.
The voter, ironically, buys the negativity, then complains about dysfunctional partisan politics. This is the ju-jitsu (or maybe aikido) that Obama is gambling he can pull off, by channeling the anger at horse trading and ear marking and pork barreling and other body parts and animal adjectives into anger at Congress, making it riskier for incumbents to look obstructionist than to collaborate.
Its a big gamble, one that will require sustained and silvery oratory (ok, advantage Obama on that one) all the way through to the midterms. (And, most likely, will get judged on the jobs numbers anyway, in the sense that "winning" in the midterms will mean "the strategy worked", whereas it will mostly just mean the economy improved - if either happens).
Its nice to imagine a different world. A friend of mine once said:
In life, if you allow yourself to be persuaded by reasonable debate, you're a reasonable person. In politics, you're a hypocrite
This was perhaps more famously said by Keynes, "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?". Thankfully, Keynes and a handful of other "great personages" did alter their entrenched views, posing sophisticated arguments to those in power and/or the electorate, when faced with overwhelming evidence that what they had believed yielded little insight into the unprecedented circumstances they faced.
Will Congress?
Just to hedge, I think I'll start learning Mandarin.